Without wind in the sails of the energy transition…

I remember in my youth sailing boats in Masuria, where I achieved in snatches the role of the so-called sheet (pulling sheets), that is, the first step above the tourist ballast. But I also remember accurately that if there was a wind of 3-4, it was even possible to sail fast in Polish conditions and make the whole lake round in a day, although at sharp courses, it tilted and teleported the boat. On the other hand, the 0-1 tourist winds were always relaxing in the sun, and the only side effect was that the boat was almost standing, and getting even to the other side caused great trouble. The start of the sailing season is approaching, and the winds are translating into the area of the energy transition, but we have a flat. After ambitious expectations and discussions at the beginning of the year, the winds of change have weakened, and stagnation prevails. After the first unveiling of the preliminary version of the new NERC, we are waiting for something new (in June?). The RES law, after a fast and dynamic start with a capsize, is stuck in mysterious discussions and ministerial fine-tuning. Strategic decisions about mining and the next steps of the transition sat somewhere quietly in the new rooms of the Ministry of Industry, which has undoubtedly become the “most invisible” ministry of the current government, and even trying to pull anything from the website is unlikely to yield specifics. The boards of directors of the big energy companies are almost there but not quite there yet, so a clear policy and strategy are yet to be hatched. It is like the first weeks of the tourist season with lazy setting of sails and preliminary checking of boats, but no decision on the course. In addition, as is the case in Polish conditions, another election is on the horizon in June, which causes any even partially controversial decision to be postponed. Each of the ministries responsible for the energy transition (or a piece of it) is pulling the sheets in its direction, and it needs to be made clear who the helmsman and captain are. Here, too, the list of MEP candidates does not inspire optimism (from the perspective of the speed of the transition). A key minister is planning to leave, so we are before the next reconstruction stage and matrix responsibility change. The wind is not blowing, and the forecast is… lukewarm for now. May Day is coming soon, and as we know, in Poland, after May Day, it’s just mid-June and vacations, so everything will stay the same in September. The only hope is that at the end of the sailing season, the winds blow a little stronger, there is no next election, and there is a chance that the boats will finally start sailing more smoothly to the other shore. 

Is it artificial intelligence that writes texts about “electricity price hikes”? 

Artificial intelligence is developing at a dizzying pace, and more professions are being eliminated (you can already see, for example, from the ads that translators are losing their jobs). Now AI has taken to journalists for grilling – with the help of Chat GPT; it is possible to quickly and neatly (1-2 min max) write a text of any length on any topic. All writers have taken the ChatGPT prompts handily in the free or paid version and are producing texts focusing only on a catchy title (also generated by artificial intelligence). Of course, much is also written about energy, and we have just had many articles about electricity price increases. 

We no longer discuss the fact that we don’t pay for electricity (because we don’t measure delivery in Amps on our bills), but for electricity (the kWh component for energy consumption) and its delivery (the distribution bill component), as well as taxes and all sorts of crypto-taxes (RES, power market, district heating, etc.). – sometimes per kWh and sometimes per month), and so no one understands the texts in the following portals about bills and alarmist information about how much it will become more expensive (10, 20, or maybe even 50% are given, sometimes referring only to a part of the bill and sometimes to net and sometimes to gross amounts). No matter!!! The main thing is that there is a catchy title – for example, “Great increases from the middle of the year”, “The government will freeze prices after all”, or “Let’s grab our wallets because electricity will hurt them”. No other topic is so carrying – after all, no one comments on the prices of bread, butter, milk or chocolate anymore, let alone gasoline, cars or bus tickets. There are also fewer articles about wage increases or inflation. Electricity is always at the forefront, and has been so permanently since one winter month in 2018, when a face (of the then opposition party) appeared on billboards (of the then leader of the ruling party) with the caption – “And electricity was not supposed to get more expensive”… Since then, politicians have treated the “electricity” bill as if it were a question of independence or at least freedom of conscience, religion and zero taxation of parliamentary allowances. Not surprisingly, journalists – or rather, artificial intelligence – are also writing about it. Unfortunately, with the ideas of politicians to “make it no more expensive,” she also can’t cope (no wonder it’s impossible to cover this with even natural and emotional intelligence). We will continue to freeze prices (because there are elections to the Europarliament). However, I remind you that we live in a geographic area of free trade and a liberalized energy market (which does not exist in our country), and even in July, we will have dynamic tariffs (i.e., linking our bills to the current changes in energy prices on the wholesale market) which will be the first use of a dynamic (i.e., variable) tariff in Poland, which is at the same time frozen permanently. In addition, the majority of the public is so confused that they believe that any increase in energy prices will ruin their lives (while accepting the widespread 50% increase in prices in stores and restaurants) and support a system like communism so that there would be stiff prices for everything (but forgets that there were both stiff prices and stiff ration cards for goods). Encouraged by the nonsensical discussion of nonsensical policy decisions (instead of rebuilding the market with a propensity to ruin it further), I asked the AI to write a sentence about “freezing” that is completely nonsensical but gives the impression of being an expert – below are some samples. 

“In the face of the ongoing energy transition, the energy price freeze policy can be seen as a tool to ensure social sustainability by minimizing negative price impacts on the most vulnerable in society while stimulating adaptation to new sustainable energy technologies at the micro and macro level.”

“In the context of the energy price freeze, it is important to note its implications for the structural elasticity of social protection, where advanced econometric models suggest an increase in the resilience of lower-income segments of the population to macroeconomic fluctuations, putting this policy at the center of social sustainability research.”

 “While the energy price freeze policy is reviving pre-dawn debates among heating owls, its actual impact on the Earth’s orbit remains a mystery, requiring further astronomical research.”

This is, of course, a deliberate crypto-advertisement – if any widely read portals (other than this expert one) would like to fill their pages with meaningless texts with catchy titles, I am at your disposal. I will send a formatted text of any volume within 1 minute. Immediately, I give these titles – my own “A disaster is coming with electricity, but maybe it can be frozen” and the artificial intelligence proposal “Electricity in Clues: How a Price Freeze Will Protect Our Wallets From Impending Rises” (that’s for the serious media) or ‘Energy Flirt with Your Wallet, Sexy Freeze on Electricity Prices’ (that’s for the more celebratory) up to” Short Skirt for Pennies: Freezing electricity prices raises the temperature of savings!” (that’s for the ones with clicks and ads) – each one also like this. Still, please note that it will be cheap…

Poland earned 1.4 billion from CO2 in March; how much will the power industry get? There is a voice crying in the wilderness about FTR. 

An enigmatic piece of information to rejoice over, of course – “in March 2024, the EEX exchange, on behalf of Poland, held two auctions under the EU ETS, at which more than 4.6 million Polish EUA allowances were sold at an average price of 57.74 euros. The funds raised from the sale of allowances at the auction amounted to nearly €266.8 million, or about PLN 1.14 billion.” By generating CO2 in Polish power plants, we create more revenue for the budget. The title voice of the one crying in the wilderness (or the power engineers during the transition) – where is the money – looking from the point of view of the power industry. Looking at previous years, in 2023, out of about 25 billion zlotys from Polish CO2 emission allowances, about 18 billion zlotys were eaten up by the state budget, and more than 6 billion zlotys went into something related to the energy industry more in name – that is, the Energy Price Compensation Fund (for the energy-intensive industry). Looking even a year earlier (2022), more than PLN 9 billion went to the Price Difference Payment Fund (i.e., compensation for price freezes) and almost PLN 5 billion to the Indirect Emission Costs Fund. To paraphrase dialogue from famous movies – the names of the funds change, but the CO2 money always only supports the handouts from the budget. In 2024, it looks like we will repeat precisely the good patterns (no one remembers anymore that the promises of the currently ruling parties included 100% CO2 money for the energy industry). After that, it constantly changes, so the price-freezing system (and subsidies) and budget expenditures in general (probably handed out energetically and so can qualify as energy) will be treated as energy. Usually, when there is a discussion about this money, it immediately talks about programs like My Electricity 6.0 (so much so that it is worth 0.4 billion PLN the program is financed from other sources (here European Funds for Infrastructure, Climate and Environment) and that all the time we are working on a law on the Energy Transformation Fund. This next fund was supposed to consolidate at least the state’s CO2 revenues into one bag and at least 40% strictly for energy transformation (rhetorical question, why not 100%?). However, as of today, FTR is again stuck in legislation, and if it is in effect, it will be from 2025 to 40%, which would still be a success. To paraphrase the movies again, governments change, but the money for CO2 will always dissolve in the budget, and the energy fund will be ready the following year.