Ministerial dispute over nukes (energy)
Media outlets gently report that the nascent Ministry of Industry already has a jurisdictional dispute with the Ministry of Climate and Environment. The issue is nuclear power; today, the Department that manages it (and several nucleated subordinate entities) has MKiS on board. Now, it is supposed to have a transfer to the MP, but the MKiS nevertheless protests. Interestingly, this most considerable dispute is over a project with a lead time 2033 (and, according to recent information, even 2033 +2). In contrast – there are no problems in taking responsibility for mining (now even 10 million tons of coal on the heap) – it will be in MP, and MKiS did not have it, and in fact, no one wants it, although the problem itself is for today or yesterday.
However, the problem of competency disputes can be easily solved. Where two fight – let the third benefit. Given the matrix nature of energy management – to reconcile all this, one can go further and, for example, nuclear power in the part of SMR can be moved to the Ministry of Development and Technology (because it is a new technology), and in the part of the Westinghouse project to… the Ministry of Foreign Affairs (and so is dealt with in international travel). The coal itself could then be taken by the Ministry of Culture and Heritage (just as heritage), the Radiation Protection Laboratory itself could be taken to the Ministry of Health, and the NCBJ…. here are several other possibilities. Climate for that could take from the Minister of Agriculture and Rural Development something like the Polish Horse Racing Club in Warsaw (because it’s in the capital, outdoors, and the Minister of Agriculture has 103 subordinate entities), and Industry… (nothing so far), but also maybe some Institute, Foundation or Agency.
The columns are satirical, and having a distance from the issue is good. However, the fact that the energy industry has been shredded in decision-making for several years is not even funny anymore, but rather very sad and is a problem for the entire energy transition. The concept of dividing the Ministry of Climate – green and the Ministry of Assets (also Industry) – black may have served for greenwashing and an attempt to simultaneously wink at the European Union that climate policy is being fulfilled and at the miners that nothing will change. Unfortunately, as you can see, the final result works poorly and does not move things forward. So maybe take away the stooges’ work and finally consolidate this in the Ministry of Energy Transformation, which would not have to pretend anything or fight for anything, but at the same time be fully responsible for decisions. That’s the idea so that it wouldn’t be “both funny and scary.”
Fashionable energy trends… show PSE reports
A new PSE study (development plan) was released – in March 2024, very fast compared to the previous one (November 2022). Less than two years show the rapid change of trends in the power industry and the avalanche of changes from previous design concepts. Interestingly, fashion is changing, despite the fact that there are still the same general assumptions (PEP, KPEiK—other approved ones currently do not exist) and the final results (fashion closet trends)—but already a little different.
The key ones are Table 4.2, page 56 (structure until 2032), and page 42 (structure of generation in 2034 and two variants). It’s interesting to see how quickly the projected values change (for simplicity’s sake, ignoring those small shifts in the projection date) and over how short a period.
Fashionable wear intensely green and yellow (because there is much more): photovoltaic (grows variably to 36-45 GW), onshore wind (17-19) and offshore wind (about 12 GW), and biogas (2.8) has also grown almost threefold.
Further in the closet, surprisingly appeared something completely avant-garde – although worn elsewhere for a long time (it is now in the table) – so – nuclear power large (1.1-2.3 GW) and fashion novelty (!) SMR (0.5-0.8), but everyone knows that we will not wear it anyway because the delivery from the courier may be late.
Down or ashamedly in a corner stuffed coal moving quickly to the role of reserve sources (and in the projected capacity can not consume the enormous output of Polish mines, you can see that realistically you will need much less). Be sure to look at Table 4.4. which shows the wearing times of these clothes (share of production). 2034 ultimately minimises coal – it remains only for special occasions. Gas continues to hang on the hangers, but we no longer buy it (slightly down to 9 GW), and it remains as standard, especially in the autumn-winter season.
Finally, the absolute hit of the season – energy storage – especially in the SDT variant – is more than 15 GW. Still, as we know, the season’s hits are usually bought without restraint, so it is worth leaving even more space in the closet.
At this rate – in 2 years in the new network development project – it will be even faster … After all, the energy industry is a bit conservative, so once you replace everything according to the new fashion, it will wear. For 30 years, the emerging trends will stay for good.
In our case – the EU’s sinister plotting for combustion cars and gas boilers will not pass.
On Wednesday, the farmers’ protests have become a permanent part of the capital’s landscape – on the southern road to Warsaw and the picturesque Przyczółkowa/Pałacowa intersection in the form of a dozen people with flags walking in the lanes surrounded by flashing police lights. They also brought a strong impulse of protest against all how-to concepts of the European Union – especially those directed at accelerating technological change. It will now become the Polish raison d’etre to defend gas stoves (we missed out on coal stoves earlier) and… combustion cars. Theoretically, there are more than 27 million cars in Poland, realistically probably about 20 million (the rest are scrap metal remaining in the statistics), but this then gives impressive numbers (various statistics) between 570 and 660 cars per 1,000 inhabitants (above the EU average and third place in Europe). On the other hand, Poland moves to the tail of the statistics by looking at the average age of vehicles – officially about 14 years (but according to others, even 17). So we won’t give up our favourite cars so quickly, and we disagree with banning the registration of combustion cars (only electric) after 2035 or some special taxes on old machines, especially our beloved Diesels. In the weeks, months, and years to come – on the banners of anti-union protests – cars will undoubtedly play a prominent role, and electric cars will be the public enemy number one. For now, there are plenty of arguments – too little range (effectively only 400-500 km), lack of chargers in cities and on routes (the unenforced law on electromobility), social media divagations, chilling stories about electrics and actual sales results. In Poland, for now, about 50,000 anything electric, including 20,000 “pure electrics.” The world’s largest manufacturer (TESLA) is about 1.8 million cars a year (chased by China’s BYD). Tesla plans to make 20 million in 2030; all manufacturers estimate that 1/3 of the European market will be pure electrics. So the protests will hold firm, and politicians will outdo each other in blocking EU regulations – we won’t let Diesels be replaced.
Meanwhile, around 2030, electric cars will be cheaper than classic cars (these will probably account for only 10% of production by new European, American and, most importantly, Chinese companies). Effective ranges will increase to 1,500 km, and fast charging stations will be at every turn (I recommend looking at London streetlights with chargers). The internal combustion car in the next decade will be a kind of old-school toy or a hobby vehicle for the few, especially as fuel will become more expensive again (through further emission fees) and it will be impossible to drive a “diesel” into the centres of most European cities. Owners of a diesel Passat (I had one myself and remember it fondly) do not believe in this scenario and press the gas pedal on the next portion of PM2.5 emissions. This is bound to fail, and they are talking about the next-generation cell phone, which after all (as the first big clunky models) appeared in the 1990s and the 21st century and erased all analogue technology (and yet it was supposed to fail, because who will build a network to cover the whole country). The first iPhone was in 2007; in 2023, it had full market smartphone coverage. Against this background, the first Tesla was built in 2012; let’s wait quietly until 2030. In our country (and everywhere), these sinister schemes of the Union, taxes, and bans on combustion cars will not be passed. Simply put… no one will buy combustion cars anymore.