400 bubbles … “Gone with the Wind?” …

New subsidy programs are increasingly surprising. Now, there is a 400 million budget for household installations and windmills. Up to 50 kW of installed capacity and 30 meters high (!!!) in wind turbines installed on rooftops and home gardens and up to 50% subsidy. The program announcement is a surprise because if we are talking about domestic photovoltaic installations, the technologies are well-mastered, the connection procedures are pretty straightforward, and the market for supply companies is developed. Home wind installations – this surprised all the experts and multiplied questions. Whether a windmill directly on the house or at some distance (and at what distance from the other house), what technology (I once saw the first attempts to introduce Chinese equipment in Bricoman, but it quickly disappeared from the market), who installs and certifies and, finally, what maintenance and upkeep of these installations. I look at the housing estate where I live and most of the houses covered with photovoltaics, and I start to imagine windmills on rooftops (and in gardens), and I also already see neighborhood squabbles (noise and reduced visibility) and flying, broken plastic shovels (Chinese models after 2 years of operation). Nowhere in the world is the market for such small devices sufficiently developed, not to mention distance regulations (are there to be any at all?) – after all, large farms (after significant wrangling) can be built 700 meters from buildings and now small windmills with a subsidy in the middle of a neighbourhood? Not to mention the production profile and billing method (will it be wind net metering?).  Not surprisingly, the first comments on the program proposal are rather chilly (the Confederation of Leviathan sensibly suggested that perhaps some analysis should be done before throwing the 400 million “into the wind” after all). Personally, I’ve been putting forward the idea for years that if the Ministry has grant money, it could spend it on a photovoltaic program for public schools – installation on state buildings (lots of space), 100% subsidy, refined technology, lots of competitive suppliers, and a direct benefit to the children, because the schools will immediately release the funds for which they bought energy – certainly to improve infrastructure for students.  For 400 million, you can equip all 1000 schools once built in the program for the 1000th anniversary of Poland. Well, but probably “we’ll think about it tomorrow…

Atom is late, but do not worry – hydrogen is not on time either.

There is new information about the timetable for Poland’s first nuclear power plant (deputy minister) project. Officially, there is talk of “a year’s delay” and “this can easily be made up”. Indeed, there’s nothing to worry about if the commissioning itself is planned (the current date) for 2033, and all the experience of nuclear power suppliers with the construction of the first units in every country is always delayed. One can also look back to the 2009 NPPJ itself and the first (hypothetical start-up) date, which was assumed to be 2020. (Then 2022, 2025, 2030 and now 2033). So it’s possible to make up for the delays, and it’s likely to change the date again to, say, 2035 or 2040 – especially since the management of the nuclear project is coming under the management of the new ministry (Industry), which is expected to start in March (so probably April). Delays are becoming something natural in the energy sector (giving dates now should be perceived as preliminary visions by no means binding), as one can see how hydrogen – Europe’s hope for a new technological revolution – is also affected. Initially, in EU documents (and especially German energy policy plans), hydrogen was already supposed to take off in the next decade (after 2030) – now the minimum has shifted to 2035-2040. The new German energy strategy (worth reading the assumptions) proposes something like a German power market (although Germany has been defensive about the concept). The new idea is to extend the operation of coal-fired power plants and build 11 GW of gas-fired capacity (more than a 50% reduction from earlier plans) with future conversion to hydrogen. However, the hydrogen economy itself signaled just from 2035. This is official confirmation that the planned pilot plants (and new technological solutions), among others – new large electrolyzers and gas turbines for 100% hydrogen – are going slower than expected. Just looking at the dates and strategy, it’s worth comparing this with (also visionary assumptions) California and their RES system concept – storage facilities; in a few years, the amount of storage capacity increased from 500 to 5000 MW, and they plan to have almost 20,000 MW by 2030 (we’ll see the result). Engineers need help understanding this new trend in dates – zero-carbon itself is planned earlier or more deeply, but capacities, technologies and construction of sources are postponed. But it has been known for a long time that engineers no longer understand the new times and have nothing to talk about….

In July, dynamic tariffs (on bills) and here we are… Continue the discussion about freezes and tariffs. Do nothing anyway.

Not everyone is aware that specific European regulations are forcing new solutions. This time… there will be dynamic tariffs on “electricity” bills. An EU regulation requires them to be introduced in July of this year. Dynamic tariffs mean correlating our prices on household bills with changes (e.g. daily) in energy prices on wholesale markets – in other words, to put it simply – changing the price list so that energy charged at night (or in the middle of the day) is cheap set during the peak (morning hours at breakfast and in the afternoon) will be expensive. One may wonder why the heck some such fancies and strange solutions – after all, we are concerned with “electricity being cheap.”  You can approach this optimistically and pessimistically – both approaches will be correct. Optimistically, this is a new level of development in the energy market and a chance for individual customers to optimise their bills and significantly expand their prosumer installations consciously.

Dynamic tariffs provide an opportunity to consciously reduce peak energy consumption – idealistically, for example, by avoiding energy-intensive appliances (e.g., laundry in the afternoon) – which I consider rather nonsense if not automated. Instead, it allows introducing a range of intelligent appliances and links them to prosumer devices (panels on the roof) and, most importantly, home energy storage. Precisely thanks to dynamic tariffs (if the difference in prices during the day will be significant and realistically show the cost of operating the system), it will pay to install home storage and at the same time charge it both from your own PV system and from the grid (which is especially important, because we do not always have a surplus from PV) when energy is cheap. This, of course, requires automatic control systems for the equipment (no one will realistically look at the dynamic, i.e. frequently changing tariffs) and keeping an eye on charging the storage by yourself (or just working in the middle of the night) – it all has to be automatic. The whole thing, too, is only possible for the “rich” – to start with, the tariffs can be used by someone who has panels (and therefore a house), a smart meter (which keeps track of consumption), a system for exchanging information about the dynamic price (probably this could be done by the new CSIRE being implemented and some option for this), still energy storage and an IT system for optimizing costs (such mini energy trading). It will all work – but probably in a few years. First, there must be a market (for the domestic customer) and accurate dynamic prices (to provide some benefit). In Polish conditions (pessimistically) – there is no free energy market, prices are frozen (artificially kept fixed), further freezes are being discussed (after mid-year) without seeing the decreasing trend in world markets (in a while it will be cheaper than after the freezes) and yet there are no intelligent meters everywhere (total only about 5 million out of 13.5 domestic users), there is no CSIRE (it is being delayed) and, above all, for sure, the dynamic tariffs introduced (we will fulfil EU obligations, of course) will be entirely for nothing. As there is no market, monopolization by large corporations will not introduce any mechanisms so that the customer can earn (reduce costs) – why? Dynamic prices will differ poorly from the fixed G11 tariff (introductory fixed price all day). Anyway, customer awareness of the energy market is at the level of the floor – the political discussion of recent years has brought the public expectation of energy (“electricity”) that it should be cheap – and preferably, the state should “freeze” and “subsidize”. No one keeps track of their bills; no one is interested in reducing consumption, and no one is considering tariff changes – after all, it’s supposed to be cheap. Dynamic tariffs will be… but they will be a disaster for the individual customer, who will benefit nothing from them. Well, in a few years – and like a mantra – market reconstruction, accurate energy prices, consumer awareness, actual tariffs because of competition, intelligent meters, working CSIRE, storage, consumption optimization systems, etc…