In anticipation of the merry-go-round of managerial changes (late January and February) …
The inevitable managerial change in all energy-related SOEs is quietly getting underway. Slowly, for now, in the form of the first names dismissed from the Supervisory Boards, to accelerate in January and eventually, with the force of a waterfall, resulting in a complete change of personnel over the coming months (Supervisory Boards, Boards of Directors, General Meetings – the dates for the most significant energy corporations are already known). This has been a regular feature of the Polish post-election energy industry since the late 1990s. Regarding science fiction, one can consider the old times (just the 1990s) when the position of Board Member/Technical Director (at a power plant or corporation) was reserved for an engineer and someone with experience in the relevant position. There was often an exchange of engineering information between power plants/corporations (meetings of Technical Directors were popular, where information about technical innovations and typical operational troubles was exchanged). It all disappeared a long time ago, and now “corporate practice,” RODO trade secrets and other regulations are becoming a veil to obscure purely political personnel decisions.
The current wave is rising slowly, but inevitably, as early as January/February, it will include 100 (if not 120%) of executives. The hope (which, as always, dies last) is that these will be professionals and people as “technical” and connected to the energy transition as possible. Given the repetitive nature of the change process (and the impact on energy decisions), you have to keep your fingers crossed that there won’t be another early election.
There is a new energy policy. It is probably for Easter.
New changes always bring expectations of a new energy policy. The expectations were there, but the first weeks and the beginning of the new year brought nothing new. The old structure of divided energy responsibility between ministries and its complicated management structure in each ministry (here it’s worth looking at the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, where it’s tough to figure out given the diversity of departments) and, in addition, coalition politics (guarantees of filling individual positions by 3-4-7 parties) are not conducive to quick decisions. Given that the priority is to fill new positions (both corporations and ministries), all think tanks and energy organisations on the new energy policy must wait … probably around the new holidays (i.e., the end of the first quarter).
When it’s cold, energy is also expensive, so it may finally be normal …
A wave of cold weather in Scandinavia and negative temperatures in Poland have reminded us that there is such a thing as winter. The low temperatures (which used to be expected) have also rocked energy prices in spot markets. Scandinavia, which used to be the market with the lowest prices, today, due to record demand, is breaking all records – Norway and Sweden are almost 200 Euro/MWh, and Finland is nearly 900 Eur/MWh !!!. An absolute record of the current times. It is worth looking at wholesale energy price maps and weather maps simultaneously – there is a robust correlation – the colder, the more expensive.
One can be surprised; one can sound the alarm (some even mention the end of the greenhouse effect, despite the fact that statistics indicate that 2023 was the warmest year of all time); one can recall past years when it was sometimes severely cold and snowy in Poland. One can also approach the phenomenon usually. Weather (and temperature) changes are natural; sometimes, it can be extremely cold (or warm), and this affects (as you can see exactly) temporary fluctuations in energy prices – in the spot markets. It should be remembered that the turnover in such markets is usually 5-15% of the total turnover, and they do not create an average energy price (well, unless for smaller companies that like a very risky market game), but precisely in their nature, they should show momentary deviations and trends. So much the good thing is that finally, the energy markets are back to normal – i.e., extreme price fluctuations depend on temperature (and demand) and can be predictable (just like the weather) and not a combination of political events, wars and fuel blackmail. Therefore, even temporary extremes like 900 Euro/MWh in Finland – shouldn’t worry us …well, unless it’s minus 30 in Poland (I remind you that 15 years ago, it was temporarily so)…