Dictatorship of old men and modern energy wars

Theoretically today, all the time the media present opportunities for younger generations, but this is by no means the case in top-level politics. On the contrary, a common feature of the leaders of the world’s major powers is their age – usually over 70. (USA) Donald Trump – 78 years old, (China) Xi Jinping – 71 years old, (Russia) Vladimir Putin – 72 years old. There is an incredible accumulation of retirement-age leaders who prefer an autocratic or even dictatorial style of government. Each of these older leaders, kept in shape, is sure to benefit from modern medical inventions – from potent steroid treatments to controversial, unproven methods (powders made from deer or rhino horns, bull eggs, extracts from exotic but poisonous fish, as well as experimental irradiations and injections). The choice is enormous. Usually in men of advanced age, there is a calming down and a desire to move into a relaxed phase of life (it’s worth reading Colas by Breugon Rolland again), but in this case it’s the other way around.  It is likely that a side effect of these steroid-amphetamine treatments, necessary to keep retirees in the shape they need to fulfill their grueling daily duties, are disturbing changes in their behavior. As a result, instead of reaching for diplomacy and compromise, these leaders are reaching for force, using violence instead of soft power or negotiation. Unfortunately, modern medicine is constantly innovating, so the next 5 or perhaps 10 years will be marked by the dictatorship of old men, their aggressive political style and, ultimately, wars. These will be fought on many fronts, but their common denominator will be energy, which will play a key role in their outbreak.

And the energy war. The warring parties nominally Russia – Ukraine. Energy conflict involves Russia, importers of raw materials (European Union) and new exporters (USA). Result – remodeling of energy raw material supplies to the EU and world markets, intensification of RES development, marginalization and destabilization of Russia

Putin, by violently attacking Ukraine in February 2022, aimed to maintain his dictatorial rule and solve the problem of Russia’s upcoming presidential elections, counting on the patriotic elation of the public. However, the assessment of the situation in Ukraine (its strength and determination in the struggle for independence) and the solidarity of European countries turned out to be completely misguided. Certainly, the decision to invade was also motivated by a desire to disrupt European climate policy and nullify the effects of the Green Deal. European plans (no matter how one judges them) have one common goal – the abandonment of fossil fuels and the introduction of alternative energy generation technologies into the global economy (renewable energy). For Russia, a country that has always based most of its income on raw material exports (oil, gas, coal), such a policy is an economic sentence. Putin and his advisors probably realized that the next 10 years of investment in RES and the drive to minimize fossil fuel imports to Europe by around 2040 would mean a complete reversal of global economic flows and the marginalization of Russia. Under dictatorial rule, Russia only knows how to extract gas and oil (mostly with the help of Western technology, by the way), and spend the money it gets from exports on luxury yachts for the oligarchs and weapons and tanks for the military sector. Russia’s attempt to use the war to create an economic (energy) crisis failed, thanks mainly to the amazing solidarity of European countries (dictators don’t understand democracy, so they only think “their way”). In addition, relatively warm winters (2022-2024) and rapid diversification of supply sources (in favor of the Middle East and the US, who gained from alternative LNG) proved crucial. The eventual outcome of the First Energy War will be huge losses for Russia (and Ukraine), a remodeling of global commodity supply routes and – most likely as early as 2025 – a drop in oil and gas prices to low levels. This, in turn, will bring another phase of upheaval in Russia, related to post-war settlements, centrifugal tendencies and huge economic problems in a country that has squandered its reserves and will not be able to balance itself with low commodity prices.

2nd energy war. The warring parties nominally China – Taiwan. The energy (economic, customs) conflict is between the exporter (China) and the economies of the US and the European Union, which are trying to defend their own markets. Result – unknown and unpredictable.

Still the First Energy War is not over a much more dangerous conflict is looming on the horizon. Chinese planes and ships are violating the airspace and water space of independent Taiwan, and continued Chinese pressure for the “reunification of Greater China” (reminiscent of Russian aspirations for the reunification and return of lands to Greater Russia) continues to raise fears of an even more serious conflict – a Chinese invasion of Taiwan. Like any war, this one also has a second bottom. China, pursuing a policy of domination in more sectors of the world economy, is increasingly coming into collision with the US and the EU. Large state subsidies are stimulating both inward investment and the development of domestic concerns, and a very relaxed approach to intellectual property (including copying and stealing trade secrets) is being combined with the genuine development of Chinese companies. China’s economy is transforming from a huge manufacturing factory to a powerhouse in the high-tech world, and this is becoming brutally apparent in energy. China has already taken a turn toward renewable energy. By 2024, they will have invested more than 300 GW in RES, compared to only about 100 GW in coal-fired power generation – the output is comparable, but the dynamics indicate that RES alone will soon dominate. More than 50% of the world’s RES projects already come from China (and that number is sure to grow). Chinese solar panels and wind turbines have become the cheapest on the market, and Chinese companies such as Goldwind and Envision dominate the industry. Behind them are Windey, MingYang and many others. Companies we’ve been used to, like Vestas, Siemens Gamesa and GE, are desperately defending their positions in the market, but they are under tremendous pressure – in new Chinese projects they don’t stand a chance (and that’s more than 50% of the world market) , and in the European market the fight is getting more and more even. In the solar panel industry, Chinese dominance is absolute – almost all European manufacturers have already gone bankrupt. Europe is experiencing a crisis in the automotive sector, and the reason is not only poor economic conditions, but also “Made in China” competition. Brands such as BYD, Geely, Changan and Great Wall, although still poorly recognized in Europe, are winning markets. Their cars, especially electric ones, are equally well or even better equipped, have the same (or perhaps better) performance and, above all, are half the price (also thanks to dumping). European attempts to protect markets, such as the CABAN system (counting the carbon footprint of products and possible tariffs for “dirty economies”), are already failing in the face of China’s turn to RES, since their products will be fully “green.” All that’s left are punitive tariffs (already in place) and internal industry bailout programs, such as the Net Zero Industry Act in Europe and the Inflation Reduction Act in the US. Nevertheless, market imbalances are deepening and tensions are rising. This situation is not helped by the policies of major presidents who put their money on one card, are relentless and raise the stakes. The trade war is just beginning and no mechanism is in sight to stop it. The next steps seem unpredictable, and no one wants to back down. The US is seeking to regain its power, which means protectionism and increased domestic investment. Europe is struggling in the automotive sector and cannot afford uncontrolled imports of Chinese green energy products (panels, turbines, energy storage), which could undercut the veins of its own economy. China, on the other hand, cannot give up its growth path and unlimited exports, so it will continue to dump and subsidize its production. If Chinese production declines, internal economic and political problems will begin, and the dictators have one solution – nationalism and “annexation of lost provinces,” meaning even more planes over Taiwan. These pessimistic predictions indicate that the Second Energy War (just after the First) is a real threat. It will be an even more devastating, bloody and exhausting war

Is there any way out of this clinch? 

A tiny glimmer of hope appears when we look at biology and social changes. So far, people are still not immortal, and as we reach 70, it is important to remember that in a while it will be 80, and maybe more. You can try to look like a media star, but the end is always the same – whether we’re talking about Stalin or Franco. The demise of senile dictators always has a similar course: a sudden onslaught of unexpected illness that no modern medical inventions can overcome, and the collapse of the dictatorship or their own autocratic system, like a house of cards. Hopefully, social change and a greater role for women in politics will help in this process. Today in the European Union, only 11% of major political positions are held by women. This must change, and we must realize that it is absolutely necessary if we want to…. survive. The existing model of “old dictators” leads to nothing but escalating wars and tensions. From the point of view of humanity, we are supposed to kill each other because of the ambitions of a few men of extreme old age. On the other hand, although women can hate and quarrel, they are unlikely to want to destroy the entire world. Therefore, for our sake (or rather, for our survival), biology must win out as soon as possible, and the political reins should be placed in the hands of women. Otherwise, we’re in for a Second, or maybe a Third, energy war, and then all we’ll be able to do is cook over campfires using wood.