Regulated energy prices 2025 – we can sleep soundly… but who will pay for it?

Hardly has the beginning of August passed, and already, there are several statements about energy prices in 2025. We can sleep soundly – the Ministry announces another price freeze, setting maximum ceilings and probably additional subsidies. The people will be happy. Recalling historical analogies, it’s worth noting that the system of price freezes, regulated rates and even free gifts was widely used as far back as ancient Rome. Beginning around 60 BC, the empire’s citizens living in Rome (and later the entire peninsula) were given grain for free, which naturally led to a situation in which more and more people stopped working, and the grain itself lost its value. During the reign of Julius Caesar, about one-third of Rome’s population lived at the state’s expense, and by the end of the reign of his successor, Octavian Augustus, this number had doubled. The grain issue became a matter of national importance, and the free handout was so firmly entrenched that no one dared to question it, even though the costs grew exponentially, eventually reaching nearly 30% of total state income.

As always, the problem for those in power was covering these costs. There was no banknote printer at the time, so inflation was creatively generated by spoiling the coin. To counteract rising prices, regulated prices were introduced – there were tables of maximum costs for wine, oil, meat, and even animals and slaves – and harsh penalties for speculators and merchants who hid goods. The system did not work and eventually collapsed. In search of a bailout, funds were obtained through aggressive wars of plunder or through a national system of looting rich citizens and confiscating their property, often under the pretext of trials for “contempt of majesty.”

Again, we are worried about the cost of a national good like electricity in 2025. We are sleeping soundly because prices are expected to remain the same, but someone will have to pay for it. It will primarily be the Energy Transformation Fund – the money we pay for CO2 emissions will come back to us as compensation for our bills. However, it won’t lead to fundamental changes in the energy industry, and we’ll still be paying more and more. History teaches us that when prices are fixed and compensated, savings and energy investments lose meaning. Unfortunately, the funds will run out anyway – so are we in for a war or the spoils of the rich?

Bookmaker companies are taking bets: nuclear power plant – first in Poland or Burkina Faso?

We all know the medal results from the Olympics; by now, Poland has finished 42nd. Some did even worse – Burkina Faso, a picturesque African country with a population of more than 22 million, fielded an eight-member team and did not win a single medal (the best result was achieved by Fabrice Zango, placing 5th in the triple jump). Those betting on Poland in the medal bets against Burkina Faso can sigh in relief. However, the betting continues. Burkina Faso has just announced that it has entered talks with Russia to build a nuclear power plant. Yacouba Zabre Gouba, Burkina Faso’s minister of energy, mining and open-pit mines, expressed great optimism after the meeting, and betting companies have started taking bets: nuclear power plant – sooner with them or with us? I am calm about the medals after all, but as for the other bet, I don’t know.

The Chinese are dumping windmill prices in Europe – are we in for a repeat of the Polish textile industry?

Construction of the first offshore wind farms equipped with turbines from Chinese manufacturers began in Europe and immediately, with a record 18.5 MW – the largest currently available on the market. The plant will be built in Germany, near the island of Borkum, by 2028. The Germans, learning from their mistakes, seem to have decided to repeat the path taken by the Polish textile industry in the 1990s, which fell under the pressure of Asian competition. Chinese windmills, offered at dumped prices and record size, will drive Siemens Gamesa and other European and American manufacturers out of the market. Many opponents of the European transition are concerned that Poland will pay for ‘German windmills,’ and this news may be reassuring. In the future, we will pay for Chinese turbines, plus there will be no need to build factories in Poland because everything will be delivered in a package straight from China.

Will we move the miners to the sea?

Less funny and, unfortunately, more brutal in business terms: the twilight of mining is inevitable. Offshore wind farms and photovoltaic panels will produce most of Poland’s energy within a decade. This process is irreversible, looking at investment trends and technological developments. As it happens in change processes, we are in partial denial, displacement and the search for painless solutions. There are optimistic analyses of the transformation of jobs for miners and energy workers from the fossil fuel sector to wind farms, especially offshore wind farms. While this looks good on paper and in presentations, it is much more challenging to achieve in reality. The RES sector will not be able to generate the 80,000-100,000 jobs that mining currently provides, and hiring a miner from Silesia to service a wind turbine in the Baltic seems exotic. Unfortunately, it isn’t easy to make this a satire, even during the holiday season. So, in general, we will continue to avoid solving the problem by pushing it out of our consciousness.

Energy cooperatives – a lot of noise about nothing?

In various statements, one increasingly hears about energy cooperatives and their supposedly enormous potential. They join the long list of “great opportunities for transformation,” which resonate more in public opinion than work. Despite the attractive idea, unfortunately, it has to be admitted that energy cooperatives are practically non-functional as of today. There are only 38 such cooperatives in Poland, with a total generation potential of 7 MW. If any politician brings up energy cooperatives again, it is worth quickly bringing him down to earth.